Risk analysis methods and their assessment
For the successful functioning of the organization, it is important to correctly approach the solution of tasks of work management and planning. Equally important will be the use of effective, accurate, relevant to the situation methods of analysis, risk management. Developed several approaches to this problem. Within the enterprise, they usually open a department responsible for the risk management system. The field of work of such specialists is a quantitative, qualitative assessment of factors, identifying the causes, a description of the actual risk situation.
Qualitative risk analysis
At first glance, this method seems rather simple, since it belongs to the number of descriptive ones. The main task of collecting and researching data is to obtain a quantitative result. At the same time reveal the cost of the consequences provoked by the discovered and investigated risk factors. Qualitative analytics is summarized by the following methods of risk analysis:
- rating rating;
- expert review;
- list of risky causes;
This method of risk analysis involves interrelated mathematical operations and logical conclusions, which allow an expert to formulate a correct conclusion on a given range of problems. The main positive of this option is the opportunity to work with an experienced, competent professional. This becomes the basis for making optimal management decisions. At the same time, the expert method of risk analysis not only operates with the analyst's intellectual capabilities, but also with his intuition - often this component is most significant, especially in a crisis market situation, when the future is completely unpredictable through classical forecasting techniques even in the near future.
When resorting to this method of risk analysis, it is not necessary to use special programs, the prices of which are very high in the modern information services market. No precise data is required to get the correct total.
Are there any weaknesses?
By resorting to the method of risk analysis by an invited expert, one may encounter inaccuracy of information due to the subjectivity of the approach.It is quite difficult to find a truly independent professional who is able to assess the situation in detail and qualitatively.
In order to get an effective result, it is necessary to provide the invited expert with access to the data on the project, the assessment of which is necessary. This means that you only need to use the services of someone who is truly trustworthy. At the same time it is important that the person does not have any preferences, interests, especially financial ones. The described method of qualitative risk analysis is effective only when engaging a professional who is capable of creative thinking and has an impressive stock of knowledge on the subject.
Expert Evaluation: Classic Approach
Key methods of risk analysis and assessment currently used in the work of experts:
- Delphi technology;
- spirals, roses risky situations;
- SWOT tests.
Such methods of analysis and risk assessment involve inviting a specialist who can characterize known factors. The data formulated by the analyst are summarized in a special table, analyzed, and on the basis of them are a formalized system of assessments. In the classical sense, rating is a subtype of expert assessment.At the same time, in recent years, project risk analysis methods have been developing quite actively, and so-called semi-formalized procedures are particularly popular. This option has a number of key features that allow you to select it into an independent, full-fledged group of approaches.
The simplest method of risk analysis of a project from the category of ratings is to make a list based on rank. Evaluation is formulated by points, most often - on a five-point system, although you can use a scale of a dozen or hundreds of points. Assessing various risks, the specialist gives them their assessment, focusing on the level of influence on the state of the company as a whole or the project under study. This method of analyzing the risk of investment projects involves the use of several experts, each of whom is assigned a degree of competence in advance. According to the results, a table is formed that is taken into account in the planning and management of the project.
List of risky causes
This method involves the use of a variety of relevant historical data. Apply lists of risks, formed on the basis of experience gained during the work on past projects.This method of analyzing investment risks (as well as other types of hazardous factors for an enterprise) is used if it is possible to compile an analyst on incidents that happened in the past. The losses incurred by the enterprise and the risk factors that have played their part are taken into account. Each new project of the company allows you to replenish the list of causes of risk with new items, and regular expansion turns the list of critical aspects into a truly significant analyst tool.
When resorting to different quantitative, statistical methods of risk analysis, it is necessary to understand that the accumulation of information on situations within the company leads to an increase in the amount of data taken into account by analysts. This is especially clearly seen if a risk analysis technique is used using a list of causes of danger. Sooner or later, the list can grow to a very large volume, which will turn it into uncontrollable.
Causes of risk: features of the method
This method of analyzing financial risks at the stage of identifying hazards will be the most effective, as it becomes easier to identify negative situations provoking a complete or partial collapse of the project.It is recommended to group risks by features to simplify the use of the list. The technique is effective as a means of retrospective analysis, preventing the return to past errors.
According to many professionals, the method of determining the causes of risks and compiling a list of those is an additional option, effective as one of the measures of the complex situation assessment. But the use of this approach by itself, without additional research by alternative methods of solving the problem, will not give; high-quality, full-fledged analysis of the situation will not provide. This is largely due to the difficulty of creating a complete list, as well as the interpretation of each of the factors.
Analogies to help against risks
Within the framework of such an approach to the issue of risk analysis, it is necessary to first find out the similar, similar to the studied phenomena, systems, objects. Based on the analysis of the data available to specialists, it is possible to calculate the probability of a negative outcome in the circumstances. At the same time, it is necessary to take into account the experience of past transactions, projects in which the company is faced with unprofitable situations.
The analog method works best when an enterprise often works on similar projects.Such, for example, are typical for construction companies. At the same time, it is important to remember that each new transaction, work project is an individual, unique implementation environment that leaves its imprint on the workflow. Due to this variability, it is impossible to talk about the absolute correctness of making analogies, and it is customary to resort to this method only in cases when other risk assessment options are unacceptable.
Methods of quantitative risk analysis
It is customary to single out the following basic approaches to the task:
- probabilistic theoretical;
The former unite in themselves the analysis by the method of scenarios, the assessment of sensitivity. The second group is simulation modeling, the application of game theory and a method based on the idea of building trees. The third group is neural networks, fuzzy logic, applied in the framework of risk analysis.
This method of risk analysis is effective when there is a given set of variables, and they all change one after another, sequentially. Thus, in the case of a ten percent adjustment of one indicator, the analyst recalculates the criteria as a whole, and then it reveals the percentage by which the overall assessment changed from the previous one.This allows us to investigate sensitivity as a percentage of the change in the total value to the adjustment of the value of the indicator. For risk assessment, the key concept is the elasticity of changes in parameters. In turn, identify the level of sensitivity for all components of the risk assessment.
When all the criteria collected responses in the form of a percentage, you can make a list by sorting in it the indicators from largest to smallest. This helps to correctly estimate the predicted values and to identify which of the indicators has a high sensitivity, which of them is medium-level, low. On the basis of the compiled list, it is possible to draw a conclusion about the indicators least connected with the dangerous situation.
This is a hazardous situations prediction option that requires the involvement of highly qualified personnel to consider all possible (even to a low degree) options for the development of the circumstances. At the same time, forecasts for each path are calculated for the main parameters of the company. The technique is considered more perfect.an advanced variant with respect to the sensitivity analysis, since with a similar logic, the complex adjustment of the parameters controlling the risk level is simultaneously analyzed here.
In the framework of this approach, first calculate the most negative scenario, in which all variables are not adjusted in favor of the enterprise. The most probable option is followed up, and the last one is calculated the most profitable for the company. According to the results of calculations, it is possible to obtain performance criteria, compare them with the baseline, formulate recommendations for development. For the scenario, the basis is the expert hypothesis about the factors: which ones need to be changed and how much. Introduce this change in the calculation for a given time period, calculate indicators and formulate conclusions.
It is believed that such an approach to risk assessment and forecasting is the most accurate, correct, but requiring highly skilled analysts and significant investment of labor. This is a rather expensive variant of quantitative analysis based on the tools of mathematical statistics.The level of risk inherent in management decisions, according to such a methodology, is supposed to be revealed using specific mathematical tools developed on the basis of measurements theory. It is supposed to combine the approaches of the system analysis, the selection of the correct measuring scale (it depends on the goals of the work) with the subsequent evaluation of the information. Then you have to select a relevant method for identifying risk parameters. Social, economic, probabilistic assessment of the adjustment of the situation must be calculated by special methods (the correct one is selected according to the situation).
As a scale for this method, it is allowed to resort to ordinal, nominal, absolute, relative. A specific option is chosen by evaluating the desired result and how large the amount of data with which the analyst operates.
Monte Carlo method
This approach to identifying and assessing risks is one of the methods of simulation modeling and is considered the most popular in its family because of its wide applicability. It assumes statistical tests, during which they form a mathematical model of the project, without specifying the parameters.Analysts set the probabilistic distributions of significant indicators within the project, formulate the relations between them, on the basis of which they receive the distribution of the parameters of the transaction, the project. Most correctly such a technique to evaluate the revenue component.
The Monte Carlo methodology involves the following sequence of actions:
- Formulation of dependencies between variables and the result.
- The choice of baselines.
- Identify the resulting variables for each of the samples by applying a predetermined set of functions.
- Repetition of the second and third paragraph.
The Monte Carlo method gives an effective result only with repeated repetition of the cycle.
This is a method of risk analysis, which is currently used very widely, and the traditional approach is “playing with nature”. Analysts form a payment matrix in which I enter all the possible resulting outcomes. The stage is rather time-consuming, requires impressive time-consuming, and the erroneousness of the inscribed value is not compensated in any way and leads to an incorrect result.“Nature” in the framework of this method of risk analysis is the reality, objectivity, corrective solution of the problem and its consequences. In addition to “nature,” a person with a strategy is considered — a given set of rules of conduct applicable in a given situation.
Strategy and natural state in the framework of this method of risk analysis interact with each other, and the analyst, following this connection, can come to the only correct solution to the problem. It is important to qualitatively organize all possible relationships, to form a matrix on two inputs on the basis of them, all elements should describe the results of applying the strategy to the natural state. The full version of the matrix should include all possible interaction options. This technique is not applicable when the analyst does not have the necessary amount of information about possible interaction options and outcomes to which they may lead. Incorrect values inscribed in the matrix, as well as the lack of necessary slots in it, leads to a strong unpredictable distortion of the result, which cannot be eliminated.