Personal inflation deflated

For the first time in three months, the personal inflation of Russians showed a negative result, the Romir holding found out.
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According to him, the real inflation index in the consumer market in June 2018 decreased by 0.17%, which is why the index value went down for the first time since February. Prior to this, the deflator grew regularly, with the most significant increase being noted in May, when the figure jumped immediately to 0.46%.
At the same time, Rosstat did not record a decrease in inflation. According to official statistics of the statistical agency, it continues to grow smoothly - from 0.38% in May to 0.49% in June. The value of the deflator, accumulated since the beginning of the year, reached 1.6% in June, and official inflation, according to Rosstat, has reached 2.1% since the beginning of the year, analysts of the holding note.
"Among the groups of goods and services for which the index is calculated, only gasoline went up in price. Prices for it rose by 2.1%, thus continuing the trend of last month. In May, the cost of fuel increased immediately by 6%.Prices for housing and communal services, on the contrary, almost did not change - growth in June was the minimum 0.03%. Thus, expenses have again decreased - by 1.44%, "the Romira review says.
At the same time, the president of the research holding Andrei Milekhin believes that it would be premature to draw conclusions about the general improvement of the economic situation. Despite a slight decline in June, it is at the level of the value accumulated for the entire 2017, he notes.
Analysts also explain an additional cost reduction in June as a seasonal factor, since in summer a number of products become significantly cheaper - primarily agricultural products. In addition, other products are cheaper, for which retailers reduce prices, trying to stimulate demand in the summer months. This conclusion is also confirmed by the decrease in the average check index, which lost 1.5% in June compared to May figures.
Deflator "Romira" is calculated on the basis of data on actual purchases at real prices, so this index may reflect the average personal inflation of each consumer.The basis of the calculation methodology is the data obtained using the scan-panel of households: information on the consumption of 40 thousand Russians, 15 thousand households in 220 cities with a population of more than 10 thousand people.
When calculating the deflator, the cost of 156 commodity items is used: food, manufactured goods, drugs, pet food, alcohol and tobacco. The average monthly prices for housing and communal services and gasoline are also taken into account. 2008 was chosen as a starting point.
Recall that in May 2018, the personal inflation of the Russians was higher than the official - 1.8% versus 1.6%. The explanation of this deflator's behavior turned out to be obvious: despite the obvious savings on the usual products (-1.4% compared to April), in May the Russians had to pay for gasoline by 6% more than a month earlier.
Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor at the Department of Management at the Faculty of Economics of the Novosibirsk National Research State University Tatiana Cheremisina draws attention to the lack of accuracy of the Romir calculations: “I doubt Romir’s conclusions that the inflation index has become negative. In my opinion, this Thus, in the regions of Siberia, the inflation index did not fall in June, but slightly increased.
It seems to me that the method of calculation does not quite capture regional differences.For example, in the Novosibirsk region in June, the price of gasoline and diesel fuel rose very significantly, by 15-20%.
I tend to believe more data from Rosstat. The fact is that in the subjects of the Russian Federation with different climatic conditions, prices for seasonal food (vegetables, fruits, berries, etc.) are reduced differently. "
Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor at the Department of Economics of Enterprises at the Ural State University of Economics, Natalya Yaroshevich also indicates that inflation does not decrease, but grows: not decreasing, but going up. <...>
There are many methods for estimating the level of inflation, they differ significantly from each other, so the use of different methods can lead to different values ​​of the indicator. "
Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor, Head of the Department of Humanitarian and Socio-Economic Disciplines of the Volga Cossack Institute of Management and Food Technologies Ksenia Beginina believes that comparing data from Romir and Rosstat is in principle incorrect: "I thinkYou can not compare the deflator index and the results of the calculation of Rosstat. First, let's understand what a deflator is. In the classical view, this is an indicator that compares the nominal and real values ​​of quantities. In this calculation for the base "Romir" 2008 was chosen - it seems to me that this year a decrease in inflation was noticed, because if we look at 2009 already, this year was the year of the financial world crisis, which affected inflation in our country . Also, when calculating the deflator of Rosstat, it is necessary to consider which year they consider the base year. Secondly, Romir, unlike Rosstat, only takes 156 items into account for the deflator, whereas Rosstat takes into account all domestically produced goods. Therefore, the logical question arises: what products are included in these 156? Perhaps there are goods and imported, the price change which depends on the change in exchange rates.
Therefore, taking into account these errors, it is possible that the result is obtained, which differs from the result of Rosstat. "
Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor of the Department of Economics and Management of Vologda State University Anna Shcherbakova points out the lack of objectivity of the methodsused in Romir: “Unlike the methodology for calculating the real inflation index in the consumer market of the Romir research holding, the sample of Rosstat settlements is 23.2% larger (271 populated points) and covers a larger number of goods and services for mass consumption (500 Rosstat’s goods and services versus 156 Romira’s commodity items.) In my opinion, the Rosstat’s inflation index calculation method suggests a more objective measure of the overall price level in a country, provided that the data collected Uzboi not falsified. <...> The decline of the deflator in June is attributed to lower prices for seasonal goods, and rightly so, but then the Romir sample of goods and services should be expanded to improve objectivity. "
Well, something like this.
The full version of the material with detailed comments of experts can be read here.
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